Area Forecast Discussion - Northern

FXAK69 PAFG 222335
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER NW ALASKA IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING APART WITH
WARMER AIR POURING NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AHEAD OF DEEP
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA STORM. MEANWHILE...A COLD LOW ALOFT
PRESENTLY NEAR 83N/150W WILL MOVE A BIT SW WITH A TROF EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE WRANGEL ISLAND/WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT NORTHERN ALASKA. 

AT THE SURFACE...OLD 970 MB LOW NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL BE ABSORBED
MON AS 963 CENTER 250 NM SSE OF KODIAK MOVES TO COOK INLET BY MON
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION IS
MOVING NWD ATTM AND PRODUCING SOME OVERRUNNING SNOW. A NEW 988 MB 
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA MON NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD THRU
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR
NORTHWARD...WHILE A NEW LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
EARLY WED HAS MASSIVE MODEL DISCREPANCY ON DEPTH...AND TO A LESSOR
EXTANT LOCATION. 

NORTH SLOPE...CLEAR AND COLD INLAND WILL START TO MODERATE 
MONDAY AS CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE.
SOME INCREASE IN COASTAL WINDS BY TUE.

WEST COAST...BASED ON WEB CAMS IT APPEARS MODELS OVER FORECAST
PRECIP IN ZONES 214-215...SO WE HAVE CANCELED ADVISORY. SEWARD
PEN SOUTHWARD...AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH AS SHORT WAVES/SFC
LOWS MOVES AROUND. MINIMAL PRECIP KOTZ NWD. WINDS INCREASING MOST
AREAS WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORY. 

INTERIOR...AMS MODERATING RAPIDLY AND INCREASING PRES GRAD WILL
ALLOW ALL AREAS TO WARM...THOUGH SOME WIND PROTECTED EASTERN
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS. SMALL AMOUNTS OF
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTHERN ZONES NEXT 36
HOURS. 


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES IN THE DIMINISHING
AREAS OF OPEN WATER. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

RT NOV 09