Area Forecast Discussion - Northern


FXAK69 PAFG 231355
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
555 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...

THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG A
LINE FROM THE CENTER TO BARROW...AND OFFSHORE WEST OF BARROW. THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG WITH THE HIGH CENTER...INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
REDEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA.

THE 974 MB LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE EAST TO BE 994 MB
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE FILLING. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SAINT PAUL AND
DUTCH HARBOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND ONTO THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY
COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST.
A TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH UP THE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH THE SUPPORT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEATHER FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CUT
NOTICEABLY INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS RECENTLY DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AS WELL. THE RIDGE LINE...PRESENTLY
FROM NORTHWAY TO POINT LAY...WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST TO LIE FROM
OLD CROW TO PRUDHOE BAY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY. A COOLER AND LESS DRY AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD IN OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. NOT MUCH BETTER IN ZONES 220
AND 224 THOUGH.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ALL WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. EXTREME WARMTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ZONES TODAY AND
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ADD TO SNOW MELT RELATED FLOODING
ISSUES...THEN ADD IN RAINFALL DUE TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH MAY 15