Area Forecast Discussion - Northern

FXAK69 PAFG 221214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE BERING
SEA NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WEST COAST HAS TURNED
PRIMARILY TO RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE IT REMAINS SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY TONIGHT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
IN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH ABOUT MCGRATH
AREA BY SUN. 500H SHOWS THAT THE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW RISE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL TRY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY LATE
SUN. NOT MUCH ANY CHANGE IN AIR WITH IT BUT IT IS ADVERTISED TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR ABOVE
NORMAL...PERHAPS TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK POSSIBLY BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK .

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN
ALASKA THEN CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP.


&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE YUKON RIVER IS FLOODING FORT YUKON AND WATCHES
REMAIN FOR VILLAGES DOWN RIVER.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.
&&

$$

CF MAY 13