Area Forecast Discussion - Southeastern


FXAK67 PAJK 250016
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...AN OLD LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OUT OVER THE BERING SEE AND WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING THAT WILL BE A FUTURE WEATHER
PRODUCER FOR ALASKA. ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN AN OPEN CELL COLLECTION TO A LOOSELY COLLECTED BAND ARE MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. 

THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER NIGHT OR
THERE WILL BE BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING THEN PICKING UP TOWARDS
MORNING AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA AND
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LOCALLY ENOUGH COOLER AIR AROUND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS NEAR
SEA LEVEL ARE STAYING IN THE SOLID FORM. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO LIMITED TO TRACE AMOUNTS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ALTITUDES WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY PICK UP.  

WINDS SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA SO THE ONLY HAZARDS FOR THE PUBLIC
AND MARINE ZONES ARE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH TUESDAY.  
.LONG TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGINNING WED MORNING AND LASTING 
THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN BY WED MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS INTERIOR AIR
BECOMES AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY A DRYING PATTERN THOUGH...ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG WED. PM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. GRADIENT
INCREASES AND FRONT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE
PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY CLEAR WITH
THE DRY AIR INVASION. HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS COMPLICATED THE
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED UPDATING.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE AIDED BY LOCAL DOWNSLOPE FLOWS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVES DURING THE WED- THURS TIMEFRAME. WE
RELIED PRIMARILY ON TODAY'S EC/NAM OUTPUT ALONG WITH INHERITED
FORECASTS TO COME UP WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WED
MORNING...INCREASING TO 45 KT IN FAVORED INNER CHANNELS WITH GUSTS
TO 60 WED NIGHT AND THURS...AND THIS MAY BE EVEN A BIT
CONSERVATIVE. THUS GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED AS
THIS APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SHARP DROP WITH THIS
NLY/NELY FLOW TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR (MID-
TEENS)...AND THAT MAY BE OVERESTIMATED AT THIS POINT. IT WILL BE
TRICKY DETERMINING NIGHTTIME LOWS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
AREAS NOT-A-COLD. COLD, DRY PATTERN PREDICTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT OVER THE WEEKEND...EC HAS THE
AREA UNDER PRIMARILY UPPER RIDGING (WITH POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS) UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEM PUMPS UP A SOUTHERN
GULF LOW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CENTRAL GULF GETTING
ACTIVE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT LEANING TOWARDS EC BASED ON
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS. WE
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE AFTER ABOUT DAY 5 AND MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT
POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-051>053. 

&&

$$

BEZENEK/WESLEY

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