Area Forecast Discussion - Southeastern


FXAK67 PAJK 261329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
529 AM AKDT SUN JUN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...Model guidance indicates an upper-level closed low
positioned over the southwestern gulf early Sunday morning will
shift slightly south during the next 24 hours...while heights
build downstream over western Canada. This evolution will
gradually focus rain over the northern panhandle, while drier
conditions and possible clearing skies develop over the southern
panhandle. These trends over the southern panhandle will aid in
moderating afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to locally
60s. This will give way to augmented radiational cooling during
the overnight that may yield patchy fog from Angoon-Petersburg
southward.

Hazardous marine winds are forecast to be confined to the northern
coastal waters, where barrier enhancement will aid in east-
southeast winds to 25 kt. Northern Lynn Canal will also experience
sustained southerly winds to 20 kt...but a brief period of small
craft speeds can't be ruled out.

Inherited grids were supported by latest forecast guidance, thus
few changes were necessary.
.LONG TERM...Upper low just south of the gulf will drift back to
the north around midweek. The upper ridge just east of the area
will begin to drift further east and away from the area during
the latter half of the week. Surface high pressure ridge over much
of southeast Alaska will gradually weaken beginning around Wed.
The surface low associated with the upper low will drift with the
upper low with several weak trofs moving across the eastern gulf
during the week...with increasing effects on the panhandle
expected during the latter part of the week. Ended up using a
blend of the 00z GFS and NAM for Mon-Mon night period...with
little change to the forecast beyond then.

Main adjustments to forecast were to speed up drying trend a bit
for Mon over main part of panhandle...and to increase winds some
over the north gulf. Did also nudge max temps upward a bit over
the eastern areas with the largest adjustment to the Hyder area.
These changes were a continuation of model trends. Otherwise
forecast was looking fairly good at this point compared to
models...with increasing model spread noted for latter part of the
week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052. 
&&

$$

Garner/RWT

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