Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 292256
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE AFFECTED STREAMS 
AND RIVERS TO RISE RAPIDLY... BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE REST OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING HAD A LOW NEAR BARROW WITH A 
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MAINLAND... A TROUGH OVER 
SOUTHEAST... A RIDGE IN THE BERING... AND A LOW SOUTH OF THE 
ALEUTIANS.  THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WILL 
MOVE EAST INTO CANADA AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE MAINLAND 
TROUGH... WHICH ALSO MOVES EAST.  THIS NEW LOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF 
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ON 
TUESDAY.  THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL GENERATE SHOWERS OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY 
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FREEZING LEVELS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE NEAR THE SURFACE TO 
2400 FT OVER THE CENTRAL... NORTHERN... AND WESTERN MAINLAND... 
RISING TO 4200-5800 FT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MAINLAND 
AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING 
OVER MOST OF THE STATE TODAY.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS 
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   =====    
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :  3.02
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :  2.97
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :  2.60
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER          PC RG :  2.40
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :  2.02
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :  1.69
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :  1.38
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :  1.28
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :  1.03
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK        PC RG :  0.84
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER          PC RG :  0.80
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :  0.74
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :  0.70
PAGY     SKAGWAY              PP RZ :  0.62
WULA2    WULIK RIVER          PC RG :  0.57
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :  0.57
KELA2    KELLY RIVER RAWS     PC RG :  0.49
SWKA2    SELAWIK FLATS RAWS   PC RG :  0.41
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER          PC RG :  0.40
SRKA2    SQUIRREL RIVER RAWS  PC RG :  0.37
KAVA2    KAVET CREEK RAWS     PC RG :  0.37
PAVL     KIVALINA             PP RZ :  0.34
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PC RG :  0.32
BKLA2    BUCKLAND UPLANDS     PC RG :  0.32
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :  0.29
PAOH     HOONAH               PP RZ :  0.26

...LONG RANGE... 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL NORTH SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST. 
THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
EASTERN INTERIOR... SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND... AND 
NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.  THERE 
ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF 
THE MAINLAND. 
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS 
IN THE FALL.
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ACL