Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 012248
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE CHENA AND CHATANIKA 
RIVERS. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY FLOW OVERBANK IN LOW LYING 
AREAS BETWEEN THE NULATO HILLS AND THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

THE NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL 
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR. BY WEDNESDAY... THE SOUTHERN 
HALF OF ALASKA WILL UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND GENERALLY DRIER 
CONDITIONS... WHILE THE FAR NORTH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE OVER THE 
INTERIOR AND THE PANHANDLE...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. SOME WEST 
FACING SLOPES MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES. THE RAINS OVER THE 
INTERIOR WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONDITIONS NEAR FAIRBANKS AND OVER 
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. DRYING OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH 
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ALASKA 
RANGE.

FREEZING LEVELS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 500 TO 3000 FEET FOR THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND 
PANHANDLE... 4000 TO 7000 FEET. THE SOUTHWEST AND ALEUTIANS RANGED 
FROM 6000 TO 10000 FEET. 

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN ALASKA FREEZING LEVELS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 3000 FOOT RANGE. FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA 
COAST... INCLUDING THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND PANHANDLE... WILL SEE 
LEVELS RISE UP TO A RANGE FROM 8000 TO 10000 FEET.
 
PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS 
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   ===== 
TEUA2    TEUCHET CREEK SNOTEL PP RG :  1.74
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :  1.35
EYRA2    EYAK RIVER           PP RZ :  1.15
PAAP     PORT ALEXANDER       PP RZ :  1.13
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :  1.10
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :  1.08
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM           PP RZ :  0.90
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PC RG :  0.90
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :  0.81
GSTA2    GLACIER BAY NATIONAL PP RZ :  0.81
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER          PC RG :  0.80
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :  0.80
ASIA2    ASIK                 PP RG :  0.79
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :  0.74
GTSA2    GUSTUVUS 2NE         PP RG :  0.72
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :  0.70
AUKA2    AUKE BAY LARC        PC RP :  0.70
GUSA2    GUSTAVUS             PP RZ :  0.69
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :  0.68
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK        PC RG :  0.68
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :  0.66
MNOA2    MT. NOAK             PP RG :  0.66
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :  0.65
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :  0.61
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :  0.61
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :  0.60
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :  0.59
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :  0.56
KLWA2    HOLLIS               PP RZ :  0.55
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :  0.54
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PP RG :  0.54
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :  0.52
PAOM     NOME                 PP RZ :  0.52
KTAA2    KETCHIKAN 13N        PP RZ :  0.52
DCKA2    DAHL CREEK NR KOBUK  PC RG :  0.51
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PP RG :  0.50
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PC RG :  0.50
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :  0.49

...LONG RANGE... 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHEAST ALASKA AND INTERIOR. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE STATE HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH...FAR EAST AND THE PANHANDLE. 
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED Y/K 
PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS 
IN THE FALL.
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

KFM