Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 282339
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE. 

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 
THE COMPLEX PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WERE THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ON 
SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS WERE 
CORRECT IN MOVING A WAVE OF ENERGY QUICKLY THROUGH THE WESTERN 
MAINLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND WAS THE RESULT. 

THE DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUED TO STABILIZE 
ON MONDAY. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL 
PHASE WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. INFRARED... WATER 
VAPOR AND EVEN RADAR IMAGES ARE DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM THAT 
WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A MUCH SMALLER BUT STILL 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH 
TO NORTH HELPING TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN END. AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY IN THIS PART OF THE STATE WILL 
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. 
 
OUT WEST... AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING. IN THE LONGER RANGE... MODEL 
SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE RIDGE TO START TILTING EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS HELPING TO STABILIZE AND DRY MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE 
MAINLAND ON THROUGH THRUSDAY AND AND EVEN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. 

FREEZING LEVELS MONDAY MORNING EXPLODED ACROSS THE WEST AND 
SOUTHWEST WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AND VALUES THAT RANGED 
BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FT. FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE 
STATE AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WERE BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES BETWEEN 5500 
FT AT KOTZEBUE AND 7900 FT AT ANNETTE. BARROW REPORTED A FREEZING 
LEVEL OF 500 FT. 

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS 
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==    ===== 
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   2.20
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.35
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.32
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   1.30
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.10
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   0.91
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :   0.91
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.90
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.83
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.82
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.80
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   0.73
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.68
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RZ :   0.66
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.62
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.60
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.60
PXKA2    PAXSON RAWS          PC RG :   0.55
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RG :   0.55
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.51
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.50
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.50
BKLA2    BUCKLAND UPLANDS RAW PC RG :   0.48
HAYA2    HAYCOCK RAWS NR KOYU PP RG :   0.46
PECA2    PELICAN              PP RZ :   0.42
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   0.40
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.40
RHOA2    RHOADS CREEK         PC RM :   0.40
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RM :   0.40
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.39
KLAA2    KLAWASKI RAWS NR GLE PC RG :   0.38
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.34
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :   0.34
CSNA2    CHISANA RAWS         PP RG :   0.34

...LONG RANGE... 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE 
MAINLAND AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. 
....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS 
IN THE FALL.
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH