Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 042253
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

ON THE YUKON RIVER...THE RIVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OPEN AREAS ALONG
THE ENTIRE LENGTH. WHERE THE KOYUKUK AND TANANA RIVERS EMPTY INTO
THE YUKON... LONG STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER HAVE DEVELOPED. GOING BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOWER YUKON BELOW HOLY CROSS IS NEARLY ALL
OPEN TO JUST SHY OF THE BERING SEA.

THE KOYUKUK RIVER IS MOSTLY OPEN ALONG ALMOST ITS ENTIRE LENGTH.
SOME OPEN AREAS ARE NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ALONG THE PORCUPINE
RIVER... ESPECIALLY NEAR WHERE IT EMPTIES INTO THE YUKON.

FOR BREAKUP REPORTS AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... SEE THE BREAKUP SUMMARY
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/MAPS/BRKUP_MAP.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY HAS AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING... BY SATURDAY
NIGHT IT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.  THIS LOW WILL
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE.  UP TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

...PRECIPITATION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   ===== 
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :  0.74
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC R2 :  0.66
PANN     NENANA               PP RZ :  0.65
PAOU     NELSON LAGOON        PP RZ :  0.59
CFCA2    COFFMAN COVE         PP RZ :  0.59
FOJA2    FOURTH OF JULY CREEK PC RP :  0.57
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :  0.55
SALA2    SALCHA RIVER         PC RG :  0.51
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC R2 :  0.51
TKLA2    TOKLAT RAWS          PC RG :  0.46
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :  0.45
MANA2    MANCHU               PC RG :  0.45
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC R2 :  0.42
TRSA2    TWO RIVERS           PC RG :  0.41
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :  0.40
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC R2 :  0.40
GDPA2    GOODPASTER RAWS      PC RG :  0.40
MCDA2    CHENA RIVER          PC RG :  0.39
PHLA2    PHELAN CREEK         PC RG :  0.38
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS     PC RG :  0.37
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :  0.36
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :  0.34
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :  0.33
EGYA2    EAGLE RAWS           PC RG :  0.29
CRHA2    CHENA RIVER          PC RG :  0.29
PAJC     CHIGNIK              PP RZ :  0.28
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :  0.28
BOXA2    BOX RIVER RAWS       PC RG :  0.28
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :  0.27
RDRA2    REINDEER RIVER RAWS  PC RG :  0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.  THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND AND
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE 
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ACL