Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 252204
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE HAS BEEN IMPACTED WITH PERSISTANT 
RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME AREAS RECEIVED AN ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 
INCHES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STEADILY RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA 
RIVERS DRAINING THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS... SUCH AS THE NUYAKEK... 
NUSHAGAK AND WOOD RIVER. 
 
PLEASE NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH A RIVER REACH MAY BE LABELED OPEN OR 
MOSTLY OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ICE RUNS FROM UPSTREAM TO 
PASS THROUGH THESE REACHES AND MAKE TRAVEL UNSAFE.

FOR MORE UP-TO-DATE BREAKUP INFORMATION... PLEASE VISIT: 
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/MAPS/BRKUP_MAP.PHP. AND PLEASE REFER 
TO THE WATCH... WARNING... AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH EXTENDS 
WELL INTO THE WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA REMAINS IN PLACE IN 
THE SHORT TERM. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST SEEMS TO GET CUTOFF FROM 
THE MAIN FLOW AND ENDS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. IN THE LONGER TERM... THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANGE 
IN MODEL OUTPUTS TODAY WITH THE BERING SEA LOW NOW DEVELOPING A BIT 
FURTHER WEST WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING BACK 
OVER THE MAINLAND... A SOLUTION THAT ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE UPON. 

CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE 
NORTH SLOPE AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY RUNOFF TO RIVER 
CHANNELS. 


...PRECIPITATION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:
LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   ===== 
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   0.90
NRDA2    NUYAKUK R NR DILLING PP RG :   0.70
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :   0.51
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
CKLA2    CAPE KIAVAK RAWS     PC RG :   0.47
TMLA2    TWELVE MILE LAKE     PC RP :   0.40
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   0.40
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   0.40
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.40
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.40
UCEA2    UPPER CHENA DOME SNO PP RG :   0.37
HRPA2    HORSEPASTURE PASS    PC RM :   0.36
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :   0.34
TEUA2    TEUCHET CREEK SNOTEL PP RG :   0.33
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :   0.33
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RZ :   0.31
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   0.26
KSHA2    KANTISHNA            PC RZ :   0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND 
THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE 
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
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