Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 192104
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

THE APPROACH OF A SYSTEM IN THE GULF BROUGHT GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
ACROSS MUCH THE UPPER COOK INLET... NORTH GULF AND SOUTHEAST. 
SMALLER STREAMS RESPONDED WITH RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS IN THOSE 
AREAS.  

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERN GULF SPUN THE FIRST BIG 
WAVE THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE 
ON THURSDAY. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 
DEVELOP ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL SURFACE FEATURE THAT REACHES THE 
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN 
THIS AREA AT THAT TIME THEN BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTH THROUGH THE 
PANHANDLE AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS NORTH... CHANGING THE 
ORIENTATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY 
DIRECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WATER LEVELS UP ONCE AGAIN ON 
SUNDAY WITH SMALLER STREAMS RESPONDING RAPIDLY. 
 
THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS RANGED FROM 4900 FT AT MCGRATH TO 8100 
FT AT FAIRBANKS OVER THE MAINLAND... FALLING DRASTICALLY TO JUST 
OVER 500 FT AT BARROW. OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS VALUES 
RANGED AROUND 6000 FT. 

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS 
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   ===== 
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :   3.87
PECA2    PELICAN              PP RZ :   3.36
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   2.60
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK NR L PP RG :   2.46
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   2.30
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :   2.25
GRVA2    GRANDVIEW SNOTEL     PC RM :   1.90
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   1.86
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PC RG :   1.84
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   1.74
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.70
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PP RG :   1.56
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.52
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM :   1.50
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER A PP RG :   1.44
GDWA2    GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PC RG :   1.44
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC RZ :   1.43
ALSQ9    ALSEK RIVER ABOVE BA PP RG :   1.42
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :   1.40
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PC RG :   1.40
GDWA2    GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PP RG :   1.39
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   1.36
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RZ :   1.35
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :   1.33
SWNA2    SWANSON RIVER RAWS   PC RG :   1.25
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   1.25
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PP RG :   1.22
BLSA2    BENTALIT LODGE HANDA PP RG :   1.19
SKLA2    KENAI RIVER BLW SKIL PP RG :   1.16
URLA2    UPPER RUSSIAN LAKE R PC RG :   1.12
SGSA2    SKILAK GUARD STATION PC RG :   1.11
MFBA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PC RM :   1.10
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE S PC RM :   1.10
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :   1.10
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   1.09
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE S PC RZ :   1.06
KNMA2    AK KENAI 29 ENE      PP RZ :   1.05
SGSA2    SKILAK GUARD STATION PP RG :   1.03
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   1.01
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :   1.00


...LONG RANGE... 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AKPEN... EXTREME WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE MAINLAND... NORTH GULF AND THE PANHANDLE. 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE.  

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS 
IN THE FALL.
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH