Hydro-Met Discussion - APRFC


AGAK78 PACR 292256
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

THE MOOSE CREEK DAM ON THE CHENA RIVER IS OPERATING AFTER HEAVY RAIN 
SWEPT THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DAM HELPS TO 
MITIGATE ANY DAMAGES BY DIVERTING WATER INTO THE TANANA RIVER AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AUGUST 29TH. 
WATER LEVELS ON THE UPPER CHENA ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT ARE NOW 
JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. A WAVE OF HIGH WATER ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE 
DOWN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WATER LEVELS AT MCGRATH HAVE NOT CRESTED 
AS OF SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY OR 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION. 

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
BUT THE END RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. THE ARCTIC LOW JUST 
OFF THE NORTH COAST CONTINUES TO DO BATTLE WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE 
NORTHERN PACIFIC. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS RAGE OVER THE NORTHERN 
BERING... SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. SHORT WAVES CAUGHT 
IN THIS FLOW ULTIMATELY CARVE OUT A LOW IN THE GULF BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. THIS BEGINS THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL... 
AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
REIGN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS THE ARCTIC LOW SLIPS SOUTH. 

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST BY THE 
COMBINATION OF THE ARCTIC LOW SLIDING SOUTH AND ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF 
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HEADING NORTH. THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT ONTO 
THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING A DRYING TREND TO BEGIN. 

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY: 

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==   ===== 
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   5.25
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   3.56
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   2.57
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   2.26
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :   2.26
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   2.09
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   1.64
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.62
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   1.54
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   1.47
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   1.45
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   0.88
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE RA PP RG :   0.86
PAOH     HOONAH               PP RZ :   0.79
JTMA2    MT ROBERTS TRAM      PC RZ :   0.78
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :   0.68
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.67
PAKI     KIPNUK AIRPORT       PP RZ :   0.66
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.65
ABYA2    AUKE BAY LAB DOCK    PC RZ :   0.61
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PC RG :   0.50
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :   0.50
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :   0.46
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.46


...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. 
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.  
....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE 
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ETH