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FXAK69 PAFG 042311
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
STATE FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST ON WED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE BROOKS
RANGE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND THERMAL
LOW.

THE NEXT AND MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WEST COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
NOT PRODUCE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
ARCTIC COAST IT WILL TAP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IT PRODUCES AS
THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAN THE FIRST
FRONT. THE WEST COAST GETS SPARED MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA TO 
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MAINLY 
OVER THE WEST COAST. A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TODAY 
NEAR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND THE YUKON 
FLATS. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AND 
THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF 
INTERIOR ALASKA ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER 
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND THIS COULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LIGHT FLOW 
ALOFT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THOUGH WILL SEE MINIMUM RH 
VALUES DROP SUB-30 PERCENT WED IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. DECENT 
MIXING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE AND SUFFICIENT 
INSOLATION SHOULD PROMPT RH VALUES THERE TO DECLINE BELOW 30 
PERCENT.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15

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Page Modified: 03 Feb 2008 18:00 UTC
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