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FXAK69 PAFG 282156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
156 PM AKDT TUE JUN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A ridge of high pressure stretching from NW Canada over Interior
AK will persist through the weekend and then weaken slowly next
week. this means that the Interior will be generally near to above
normal temperatures through the weekend.

A strong short wave over the northern Chukchi Sea will move east
across the Arctic Coast through tonight. This will push a cold
front east with it that will be discussed in the surface features
below.

A weak short wave trough stretching from Old Crow to Anvik will
weaken slowly through Wed. Moderate instability south of this
trough will combine with the trough to cause isolated showers and
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and south of this
trough. Southwest of Tanana expect scattered thunderstorms this
evening some of which could have small hail.

A second weak short wave trough near Yakutat will move over the
eastern Alaska Range and southeast Interior by 4am Wed...to Summit
Lake to Eagle by 4pm Wed...to Denali to Fairbanks by 4am Thu...and
dissipate along a McGrath to Tanana line Thu. Expect scattered
showers and isolated to thunderstorms along this feature. Some of
the thunderstorms could have hail.

Several more short waves will make their way from the Southern
Yukon Territory to the southwest Interior Wed night through Fri.
Each trough will have more low level moisture to work off from
the rains of the previous troughs. Expect numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms along with these troughs. The highest
rainfall amounts will be along the Alaska Range and zone 224 Wed
night through Fri. Expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms further north with this feature.

A fourth and stronger short wave will move to the Eastern Alaska
Range to Dawson by 4am Fri and to Denali to Old Crow by 4pm Sat. 
Expect widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms along this trough
across the Interior and Alaska Range.

Surface...
A thermal low pressure trough from Mayo to Fairbanks to Anvik will
move to Anvik to Tanana to Chicken by 4pm Wed...and then
persisting into Fri. Most Thunderstorms will be along and south of
this trough with drier and warmer conditions to the north.

A 996 mb low 250 nm north of Barrow will move to 300 nm northeast
of Barter Island as a 994 mb low by 4am Wed then continue moving
rapidly east. A Cold front stretching from this low southwest
across the Chukchi Sea will move to north of Barter Island to
Deadhorse to Point Lay by 4am Wed...to Barter Island to Point Lay
by 4pm Wed. Expect drizzle and fog with this front. 

High pressure will build over the Arctic Coast Wed and Thu. This
will cause winds to turn NE and decrease and cause stratus and fog
to form along the coast.

A weather front over the central Bering Sea will persist through
Wed. This is causing warm south flow over the eastern Bering Sea
that is causing low stratus and fog over the eastern Bering Sea
and southern Chukchi Sea through Wed. High pressure building over
the Norton Sound Wed will expand over the northern Bering and
southern Chukchi seas Thu and persist into Fri. This will keep
stratus and fog over those areas. 

&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models show similar solutions through Friday on most features
except for the short wave moving NW across the Alaska Range Wed
and Thu. The GFS is faster than the NAM and ECMF with this feature
and favor the GFS as it appears be tracking well with this feature
now over SE Alaska. Start to see larger differences on location of
short wave troughs over Southeast Alaska and the southeast
Interior on the weekend. At this time favor the GFS solutionthrough
the weekend and into early next week. Next week the ECMF takes a
strong short wave and cold front south over the West Coast. This
appears unlikely given the climatology at this time so favor
solution closer to GFS for next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A number of thunderstorms expected over the southern Interior
today through Fri but expect them to be wet.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Expect 1-3 inches of rain over the Alaska Range and zone 224
Wed through Fri. At this time one inch of rain look likely over
this period and there is a possibility of up to 3 inches in some
areas. This could cause small stream flooding and possibly even
river flooding late this week but there is still uncertainty as to
the exact amount and locations of the heavy rain so we will have
to keep and eye on those areas. People going into the Alaska Range
and zone 224 later this week should be alert for the possibility
of rapidly rising streams and rivers along with possible mudslides.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB JUN 16

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