FXAK69 PAFG 241316
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
416 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRING SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 
THE GULF OF ANADYR ELONGATES OUT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS.
NORTHERN AK WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE PATTERN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
EARLY WINTER...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW THAT WAS IN THE VCNTY OF COOK INLAND AT 
00Z YESTERDAY IS NOW RE-DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND THE Y-K DELTA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY GET ABSORBED BY A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF KAMCHATKA AND THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
HAVE THIS LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING OFF TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS ON WED
NIGHT AND RE-DEVELOPING IN BRISTOL BAY ON THURSDAY AS ADD'L
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF IT'S ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR UNTIL THE TIME THAT THE ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODEL SPREAD THAN
INCREASES THURS-FRI AS THE LOW THAN LIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE 
NORTON SOUND.

INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW RE-DEVELOPS 
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONGER WIND IN 
THE PASSES OF THE AK RANGE TO DIMINISH TODAY. ANTLER CREEK
APPEARED TO PEAK OUT AROUND 08Z WITH GUSTS TO 57 MPH. NO
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TALKEETNA
PROFILER HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW 40 KT WIND AT 2 KM THROUGH 12Z SO 
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN PASSES THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY.

AN EVEN STRONGER CHINOOK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS IN THE
PASSES. THE SUPPORT ALOFT LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT CHINOOK
SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WIND ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE
NEAR WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN THE PASSES LATER IN THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE NOW MUCH WARMER WITH TEENS AND 20S ON MOST OF 
THE HILLS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND ONLY THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE 
EASTERN INTERIOR STILL WELL BELOW ZERO. SOME VERY MINOR COOLING 
BETWEEN CHINOOKS...BUT TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK COULD EASILY CLIMB TO 
AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING ON THE HILLS AROUND FAIRBANKS
WITH THE STRONG CHINOOK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S IN THE AK
PASSES. THE 12Z PAFA SOUNDING HAD A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY WARMING TO -3C ABOUT 500 FT
AGL...AND THIS FITS IN WELL WITH OBSERVED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
20S ON THE HILLS AT ELEVATIONS OF 750-1000 FEET ASL AROUND
FAIRBANKS.

OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES OR POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE STRONG DOWN-
SLOPE FLOW INTO MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THURS-
FRI.

NORTH SLOPE...TEMPS ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REBOUND THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. TEMPS ALONG
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH TONIGHT. 
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

WEST COAST...THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES 
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT IS RE-DEVELOPING NEAR SAINT 
LAWRENCE ISLAND. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE ON SAINT LAWRENCE 
ISLAND TO THE NORTON SOUND AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY. THERE WILL BE A 
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SECOND STRONGER LOW. POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A STRONG LOW IN THE VCNTY
OF BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE
NORTON SOUND ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG
N'LY WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. STORM
SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT HIGH SURF IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

CB NOV 09