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FXAK69 PAFG 280848 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AS FAR AS
SYSTEM LOCATION AND STRENGTH AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH BOTH NAM AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT WHAT IS OBSERVED.
SHORT TERM AND MID TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINIMAL RUN TO
RUN SPREAD AND MINIMAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH IN
THE LONG TERM. RELIED HEAVILY ON INHERITED FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR AND A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS HELD SWAY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND
THE YUKON AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL RETREAT
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
THE BERING STRAIT DIGS TO THE SOUTH AND DRIFTS TO THE EAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH AXIS FROM BARROW TO THE BERING
STRAIT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IS SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH EAST AND
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN 512 DAM
LOW AROUND 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SLOWLY ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY
SUNDAY.

THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST TO A
PASC TO PAUN LINE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
GALENA AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM GALENA SOUTH AND
WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE. EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES AT MOST IN THESES AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
SO LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW ON THE NORTH SLOPE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING NORTH TO NEAR
KODIAK BY SUNDAY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
SATURDAY AND PUSH INTO THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE MUCH ABOVE TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SNOW PACK
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO RIPEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15


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Page Modified: 03 Feb 2008 18:00 UTC
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