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FXAK69 PAFG 171323 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave ridge over the Bering and West Coast of 
Alaska will have several strong short waves make their way east 
through the ridge through the weekend. Each short wave will bring 
stormy conditions consisting of rain, snow, winds and possible 
blizzard conditions with them, with about a day of quiet weather 
in between them. A deep long wave trough over NW Canada will 
retrograde over eastern Alaska next week causing temperatures over
the eastern Interior to fall to well below zero next week. 

A short wave trough over the Eastern North Slope and Eastern
Interior will move over the Alcan Border today and east of the
border tonight. Snow with this feature will taper off today and
tonight. 

A second and very strong short wave near Kamchatka will move 
along the dateline Sat, over the West Coast of Alaska Sat night, 
then drop into the Gulf of Alaska Sun. This will bring a strong
storm with strong winds, snow and blizzard conditions, and
possible freezing rain to the West Coast and SW Interior Sat into
Sun. See Surface below for details.

Surface...
A 1002 mb low 80 nm north of Cape Lisburne will move to
Cape Lisburne as a 1017 mb low by Fri evening then dissipate Sat.
A weakening weather front stretching from this low to 1004 mb low
over Arctic Village, will move to Cape lisburne to a 1012 mb low 
near Dawson by 3pm Fri, and to Cape Lisburne to Northway by 3am 
Sat, then dissipating. There are winds 15-25 kt with the first low
over the Chukchi Sea that are now causing high surf from 
Shishmaref to Deering. Those winds and the high surf will decrease
this afternoon as the low weakens. There are scattered snow 
showers along the front that will diminish to isolated snow 
showers tonight. Upslope areas such as the north slopes of the 
Brooks and ALaska Ranges will see another 1-2 inches of snow with 
these features today. 

A 994 mb low over Kamchatka will move to near Anadyr as a 999 mb
low by 3am Sat, to the Chukotsk Peninsula as a 991 mb low by 3pm
Sat, to 60 nm southwest of Nome as a 981 mb low by 3am Sat, and to
near Dillingham as a 989 mb low by 3pm Sun. A strong warm front
stretches east from the low that will move to the Eastern Bering
Sea by 3am Sat, to Provideniya to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Sat, 
with a cold front from Provideniya south to near St Paul Is by 
3pm Sat. After that the front will rapidly occlude and lie from 
Nome to a triple point near King Salmon by 4am Sun, with the front
moving south of the area during the day Sun. Expect snow and 
southeast winds 25-35 kt head of the front causing near blizzard 
conditions. Precip will change to rain along the warm front and in
the warm sector south of the warm front. This will cause freezing
rain over zone 214 and possibly southern zone 215 Sat PM which 
could cause a significant accumulation on the frozen ground. 
Precip will change back to snow with the cold front and with the 
occluded front. Expect 4-8 inches of snow over the West Coast and 
Western Interior with this system. Expect Northwest winds 40kt 
south of the surface low over zones 213 and 214 Sat PM into Sun 
Am. The could cause high surf zone 214 Sat night. Will issue for 
the West Coast from Kotzebue to Shageluk south for Sat into Sun.

&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models in reasonable agreement through Mon, then they start to 
diverge through next week on the location of short wave troughs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
There are winds 15-25 kt over the Chukchi Sea that are now 
causing high surf from Shishmaref to Deering. Those winds and the 
high surf will decrease this afternoon as the low weakens.

Expect Northwest winds 40kt south of the surface low over zones 
213 and 214 Sat PM into Sun Am. The could cause high surf zone 214
Sat night. 


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB NOV 17


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