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FXAK67 PAJK 200004
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...TIGHTLY WOUND CLOSED 977 MB LOW IS BARRELING
NORTHWARD OVER BARANOF ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ON ITS WAY TO ICY
STRAIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE YUKON THIS EVENING.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE HOWLING THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT WITH GUSTS
TO 83 KT...THAT IS 96 MPH. WINDS BEGAN RISING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A FEW DECORATED HINTS STARTED POPPING AS IN A
TREASURE HUNT OVER HAIDA GWAII WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 60 MPH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 26-28 FOR THE DEVELOPING POORLY
MODELED STORM. EARLY ON WE FELT THE GEM HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW ON THIS STORM AS THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS STRUGGLED WITH. LATER IN THE SHIFT...THE LATER
RUNS OF THE ECMWF SPED THE SYSTEM TO MATCH THEY EYEBALL TEST. 

TO SUM UP...GALE TO SMALL CRAFTS AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL
START DIMINISHING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WHILE
HEALTHY NORTHERLY RESPONSIVE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT WE COULD HAVE GALES FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE AND LYNN CANAL. 

MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GULF...OVERSHADOWED BY THE ONE PUSHING
NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND ALLOW A FRONT TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER SOME AREAS...HOWEVER...NOTHING TO
COMPARE TO THE WINDS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. 

RAIN AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL TURN INTO SHOWERS AS IT PASSES AND
COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT GIVEN
WINDIER CONDITIONS...HIGHS TOMORROW WERE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.  

USED 12Z GEM MAINLY...WITH SOME HELP FROM 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
AND 18Z NAM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD. 
.LONG TERM...A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTH ALONG 140W FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE CIRCULATION AND MOVES TO A POSITION VERY CLOSE TO
WHERE THE LOW FROM TODAY WAS LOCATED - JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII.
WHEN THIS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES, IT WILL BE GALE FORCE STRENGTH AND
IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY. 

THE FRONT FROM THE FIRST OF THESE TWO LOWS WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY, SPREADING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS UP
THE OUTER COAST AS WELL AS OVER SEVERAL OF THE INNER CHANNELS
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE STRONG WINDS
ON THE OUTER COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. 

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND GEM EARLY ON FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND
WINDS. POP AND QPF PRIMARILY FROM GFS AND ECMWF. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036. 
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031>034-041>043-051-052. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053. 

&&

$$

JWA/FRITSCH

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