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FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS. 

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&
.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT 
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR 
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012. 
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053. 

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





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