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FXAK67 PAJK 310014
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTING E-NE JUST S OF CAPE SUCKLING. SOME CLEARING EVIDENT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUT THIS CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE AK MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVING/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION SUN
MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINED IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL
THE 12Z RUNS...WHEN THE GFS AND EC RESOLVED A BROAD CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN WHERE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD
DEPICTED A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. 12Z NAM WENT WITH A SPLIT LOW...ONE BY YAKUTAT BAY AND
THE OTHER NEAR CAPE DECISION. ELECTED TO GO WITH A GFS/EC BLEND
AND 18Z NAM AND GFS REWARDED THIS DECISION WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL PRODUCE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
SUN AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY SUN WITH RAIN AND NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME, GFS BUILD IN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. UPPER FLOW IN ECMWF ALSO SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA VICE A RIDGE. EC AND GFS REMAIN
OUT OF PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL
RUN. 

AT THE SURFACE, EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A LOW CLOSE
ABOARD THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST WITH RAIN EXTENDING FROM YAKUTAT
SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE LOW WILL EITHER WEAKEN ALONG
THE OUTER COAST OR DRIFT INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL BACK
TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A RESULT. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A WEAK AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT PUSHES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. 

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF EARLY ON TO KEEP ONE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE VICE TWO SEPARATE
LOWS PER STRAIGHT GEM AND NAM. RESULTING CHANGES INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE GULF. EARLY POP FIELDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. GEM AND
ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. 

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042. 

&&

$$

BC/FRITSCH

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