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FXAK67 PAJK 241324
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
524 AM AKDT THU APR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY WSW OF CROSS
SOUND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE FROM SKAGWAY/HAINES W TO
YAKUTAT. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS IS LOCATED
VERY CLOSE TO HAINES/SKAGWAY AS OF 1230Z...THUS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO END FOR THESE LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FARTHER
W...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AROUND YAKUTAT
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SLOWLY LIFTS NWD.
ELSEWHERE...DRY MID LEVEL AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
YAKUTAT/...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR NRN AREAS...AND
UPPER 30S OVER THE S.

MARINE OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z DEPICT A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF. SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING EWD DURING THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NWD INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
YIELD A NLY PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM ROUGHLY SRN LYN CANAL SWD TO
DIXON ENTRANCE. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42.
OTHERWISE...THU MORNING IR IMAGERY SHOWS MARINE STRATUS OCCURRING
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRATUS TO SHIFT EWD WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN COAST TONIGHT.

USED MAINLY A NAM/EURO BLEND FOR MSLP/WINDS AND POP/QPF...AND A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. EXAMINATION OF BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL WAVE HEIGHTS WERE 1 OR 2 FEET TOO
HIGH...THUS LOWERED VALUES TO 7 FEET OVER MARINE ZONES
41...42...AND 43 FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS RESULTED IN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO BE DROPPED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&
.LONG TERM...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DUE TO THE WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY AND
ONSHORE AS A STACKED LOW TRACKING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE LOW BECOMES OCCLUDED WITH A LARGE FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE OUTER COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW HOLDS IN THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE OVERALL
SYSTEM STARTING TO WEAKEN.

THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TUESDAY WHICH 
WOULD DRAW ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AWAY...HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER 
GREATLY ON THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. SO 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THOSE SOME. 

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GARNER/FERRIN




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