AGAK78 PACR 182310 AAA
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 
300 PM AKDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS CAUSING HIGH WATER ON THE CHILKAT AND TAIYA 
RIVERS NEAR SKAGWAY AND HAINES. WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE ON THE 
MATANUSKA RIVER...REACHING LEVELS WHERE EROSION HAS TAKEN PLACE IN 
THE PAST. HIGH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED FOR THE COPPER 
RIVER...MAINLY ABOVE AND BELOW CHITINA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... AREAS OF SHOWERS WERE OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ALEUTIAN 
ISLANDS. AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER STATIONED OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA. UPPER LOWS ARE  
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD. THE 
LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH 
WESTERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY.
 
AT 4AM FREEZING LEVELS WERE BETWEEN 7500 FT OVER THE PANHANDLE TO  
13500 FT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. BY THURSDAY... FREEZING LEVELS WILL 
RANGE FROM 5000 OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO 11500 OVER THE NORTHEAST 
PORTION AND THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA.

SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM: 
LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR  
======== ====                 == == 
RHOA2    RHOADS CREEK         PC RM :   0.50
PAVC     KING COVE            PP RZ :   0.43
JDWA2    JUNEAU DOUGLAS WWTP  PP RZ :   0.41
MREA2    MOORE CREEK BRIDGE   PC RM :   0.40
TKUA2    TAKU RIVER NR JUNEAU PC RG :   0.39
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.33
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   0.31
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM PP        PP RZ :   0.26
HOOA2    HOONAH               PP RZ :   0.26

...FORECAST PRECIPITATION... MORE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY. 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP NEAR THE ALASKAN RANGE ON THURSDAY.

...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...
DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE NAM... WITH SOME MANUAL EDITS. 
 
DAY 4-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...
WITH MINOR MANUAL EDITS. 

...LONG RANGE... 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE 
PANHANDLE HAS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
....................................................................

THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP 
BEGINS IN THE FALL.  A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION 
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

KFM