FXUS65 KRIW 192103
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2003

...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY....
LEE SIDE TROUGH SET UP WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS SOUTH...EAST
AND NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED TODAY.  CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
WIND KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER IN CENTRAL BASINS. WEAK COLD FRONT
COMES SOUTH FROM MONTANA TONIGHT WHICH WILL KILL THE WIND EXCEPT IN
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW TONIGHT.  UPPER TROUGH
THEN PASSES WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHTER WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION IN STORE.  WILL BE SEEING RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  C.BAKER

...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IN THE EXTENDED IS PORTRAYAL OF < -30C COLD
POOL BEING PULLED DOWN FROM ALEUTIANS. GFS TRIES TO SPLIT THIS ENERGY
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. LATE WEDNESDAY DROPPING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
TROUGH HOLDING TOGETHER AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE ONE CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS IS BRINGING
THAT QUITE COLD ALEUTIAN H5 POOL ACROSS WITH THIS TROUGH SO BETTING
ON STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ZONES.  WILL TIME RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS INTO NW
THURSDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FRIDAY.  ONLY HAVE ECMWF
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY SO WILL EXTRAPOLATE FROM THERE BUILDING RIDGE AND
GRADUALLY WARMER AIRMASS INTO AREA NEXT WEEKEND. AEM

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$